Short answer. The expected value of a deposit bonus is the bonus minus what it costs to clear: EV = B − T × (1 − RTP), where T is the required turnover (base × multiplier) and RTP is the return of the games you clear it on, adjusted for contribution rates. A $100 bonus at 40× on a 96% slot: EV = 100 − 4,000 × 0.04 = −$60. The break-even RTP is 1 − B ÷ T, 97.5% here. A cashout cap lowers EV further by removing the part of the distribution above the cap, and most players never reach the end of the requirement, which is why the calculator also estimates bust risk.
Calculator
Formulas
T = base × multiplier base = B or (D + B)
L = T × (1 − RTP) ÷ contribution expected loss while clearing
EV = B − L before caps
RTP* = 1 − B ÷ T break-even RTPDeposit money is yours before and after; the EV above is the value of accepting the bonus relative to playing the same turnover without it. If you would not otherwise wager T at all, the relevant comparison is EV versus not playing, and then L is the full cost.
Verified presets
| Preset | Terms (23 Oct 2026) | T per $100 bonus | EV at 96% | Break-even RTP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megapari (PL) | 35× bonus, 30 days, max 25 PLN | $3,500 | −$40 | 97.1% |
| 22Bet (PL) | 35× bonus, 7 days, max 20 PLN, no crypto | $3,500 | −$40 | 97.1% |
| Betwinner (RS) | 35× bonus, 7 days, max 600 RSD, no crypto | $3,500 | −$40 | 97.1% |
| BitStarz | 40× bonus, 7 days, max €5, tables 5% | $4,000 | −$60 | 97.5% |
| Pin-Up | 50× bonus, 72 h, max €6, cashout ×5 | $5,000 | −$100 before the cap | 98% |
| Stake partner bonus | 30× deposit + bonus (help-centre example), multiplier varies | $6,000 at a $100 deposit | −$140 | 98.3% |
| Sportsbet.io | 100% up to 300 USDT, 72 h; multiplier shown after login | enter manually | n/a | n/a |
The verdict is "take" only when EV is positive after the cap, "neutral" when EV is within ±10% of the bonus and the terms allow normal stakes and time, and "skip" otherwise.
Why slot RTP decides everything
| Game RTP | Expected loss on $4,000 (40× of $100) | EV |
|---|---|---|
| 94% | $240 | −$140 |
| 96% | $160 | −$60 |
| 97% | $120 | −$20 |
| 97.5% | $100 | $0 |
| 98% | $80 | +$20 |
Slots above 97.5% exist but are rare, and casinos often exclude them or cut their contribution: Cloudbet counts slots with RTP above 99.5% at only 10%, BitStarz excludes progressive jackpots, and most brands keep a dynamic list of restricted games. The calculator applies the contribution rate you enter.
Cashout caps
Pin-Up pays at most 5× the bonus from bonus winnings; the remainder is forfeited. For a €100 bonus the cap is €500. The cap does not change the expected loss during wagering, but it removes the upper tail of outcomes, so the true EV is lower than B − L. The calculator estimates the effect with the volatility setting; the estimate is an approximation and is labelled as such.
Bust risk
Clearing $4,000 at $5 per spin is 800 spins. Whether a $200 balance (deposit plus bonus) survives 800 spins depends on the slot's variance more than on its RTP. The methodology page describes the simple random-walk model we use; it gives a probability range, not a promise. Rollbit's own help centre says of its 5× bonus balance that there is "roughly a 50% chance of completing the wagering amount depending on your gameplay style", which is the right order of magnitude for low multipliers and much lower for 40×–50× with small balances.
FAQ
Is a casino bonus ever positive EV?
Only if the game RTP exceeds the break-even RTP (1 − bonus ÷ turnover) on games that count at 100%, and the cashout cap does not bite. For 35×–50× that means RTP above 97–98%.
How do I calculate the EV of a casino bonus?
Bonus minus turnover × (1 − RTP), divided by the contribution rate where it is below 100%; then subtract the value lost to any cashout cap.
Does EV include my deposit?
The deposit is not part of the bonus's EV; it is at risk in the same way whether or not you accept the bonus. A deposit-plus-bonus base simply raises the turnover.
Independent calculator. Expected values are long-run averages, not predictions. Not financial advice. 18+.