How We Calculate

Inputs

For each casino and region we store the terms as read from the casino's own promotion page or bonus policy: match percentage and cap, minimum deposit, wagering multiplier, wagering base (bonus or deposit plus bonus), contribution by game category, maximum bet during wagering, expiry, maximum cashout, excluded games and payment methods, eligible countries, and the verification date with the source URL. Fields the casino does not publish are left empty and the calculator asks for them; we never fill them from third-party reviews.

Formulas

Turnover T            = base × multiplier
                        base = B (bonus) or D + B (deposit + bonus)
Effective turnover    = T ÷ c                 c = contribution rate of the chosen game
Expected loss L       = (T ÷ c) × (1 − RTP)
Expected value EV     = B − L                 before caps
Break-even RTP        = 1 − B ÷ T             at c = 100%
Minimum bets          = T ÷ max bet
Pace                  = T ÷ days              and ÷ max bet for bets per day
Rakeback              = wager × (1 − RTP) × rate
Free spins gross      = N × spin value × RTP

RTP is the game's published return, entered by the user or taken from the category default (slots 96%, tables by game). Where a casino counts a game section double (22Bet, Megapari, Betwinner in-house sections), c = 200%.

Cashout-cap adjustment

When a cap K applies (e.g. 5× bonus), the outcome distribution of the bonus balance after wagering is truncated at K. We approximate the distribution of the final balance as a normal with mean D + B − L (or B − L where the deposit is unaffected) and standard deviation σ = s × √(number of bets) × bet size, where s is the per-bet standard deviation implied by the volatility setting (low 2, medium 5, high 10 in units of bet size). The expected value lost to the cap is the expectation of the excess above K under this distribution. This is an approximation; slot payout distributions are heavily skewed and the real loss to the cap can differ. The result is labelled "estimated".

Bust-risk estimate

The probability of completing the requirement before the balance reaches zero is estimated with a random-walk model: starting balance D + B, drift per bet −bet × (1 − RTP), variance per bet (s × bet)², absorbing barrier at zero, horizon T ÷ bet bets. We report the probability of not hitting zero within the horizon. Assumptions: constant bet size at the user's chosen value (capped at the max bet), constant RTP and variance, no change of game. Real play violates all three, so the output is a range (low, medium, high volatility), not a single promise. For reference, Rollbit's help centre describes its own 5× bonus balance as "roughly a 50% chance of completing" depending on play style.

Verdict

• Take: EV after the cap adjustment is positive and the pace (bets per day at the max bet) is at or below 1,000 spins per day.
• Neutral: EV between −10% and +10% of B, pace achievable, and no exclusion that blocks the user's game or payment method.
• Skip: EV below −10% of B, or pace above 1,000 spins per day, or the cap is at or below 2× B, or the user's payment method or country is excluded.

For rakeback and cash rewards the verdict is "no cost": the calculator reports the amount and its percentage of turnover instead.

What the model does not do

It does not predict a session. It does not account for streaks, progressive features, bonus-buy variance or games with non-stationary RTP. It does not include deposit fees, withdrawal fees or exchange-rate costs. It does not model sportsbook margins beyond the user-entered edge. It does not estimate the value of VIP perks that casinos award at their discretion.

Verification and dating

Every term carries the date it was read and a link. We read the casino's own pages and help centres; where a site shows different terms by country, we record the country served and label it (INTL, PL, RS, RU locale). We re-check terms on a schedule and after any public change; the date on the page is the last check, and the page history lists changes. If you find a discrepancy with the live terms, the casino's current rules prevail and we will correct the entry.

Independence

The site operates no casino, holds no player funds and accepts no bets. Where links to casinos carry referral parameters, that is disclosed on the page and does not alter the terms we show. We do not publish promo codes that we cannot verify on the casino's own pages.